The GEAR members María Ángeles Tobarra, Luis A. López, Ángela García-Alaminos and María Ángeles Cadarso have recently published the paper entitled “Identifying critical EU carbon emissions risk through global value chains” in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. The article is a result of the European Commission under Horizon Europe project TWIN SEEDS (Towards a World Integrated and Socio-economically Balanced European Economic Development Scenario), grant number 101056793 (https://doi. org/10.3030/101056793).

This study examines the distribution of carbon emissions across global value chains (GVCs) and identifies the sectors within the EU that are most vulnerable to carbon-related risks. Using environmentally extended input-output analysis, the authors map both upstream and downstream carbon “hotspots” and introduce a novel Climate-Reshoring Index (CRI) to assess sectoral vulnerability to carbon dependency and trade disruptions.

Key findings reveal that the sectors emitting and consuming carbon-intensive goods are not the same. For example, Electricity & gas and Basic metals (especially from China and Russia) are major upstream emission sources, while Russian refined petroleum products dominate downstream imported emissions. Sectors like Chemicals and Metals show over 50% of their carbon footprint as imported. The most at-risk sectors, according to the CRI, include Computer, electronic and optical equipment, Pharmaceuticals, and Electrical equipment—all critical to the EU’s strategic autonomy. The study emphasizes the need for EU policies to account for sector-specific carbon exposure to enhance both climate goals and economic resilience

You can find the full text here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25000876?via%3Dihub

The GEAR members Guadalupe Arce, Ángela García-Alaminos, Mateo Ortiz and Jorge Zafrilla have recently published the paper entitled “Attributing climate-change-related disaster displacement responsibilities along global production chains” in iScience.

This paper analyses the link between unsustainable consumption by world powers and the increasing vulnerability of some developing countries. Its main aim is to propose a fair method for attributing responsibility regarding climate migration. To do so, this paper explores the historical responsibility of nations for climate change based on a consumption perspective rather than a production criterion, given the role that globalization and trade dynamics have played in both the climate crisis and the vulnerability of the Global South.

The assessment of historical emissions under the consumption criterion reveals that the responsibility for the negative consequences of climate change must be concentrated in a short list of countries. The top 15 countries whose demand has generated the greatest share of historical emissions account for 74.01% of the total, most of them developed and high-income countries that have led the globalization process. This responsibility attribution contrasts with the assessment of vulnerability to climate migration, which points to developing economies in the Global South (such as Bangladesh, Haiti, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Madagascar, Myanmar, Mozambique, Niger, Sudan, and Somalia, selected as the top 10 most vulnerable counties) as those whose populations are more likely to suffer the consequences of climate change.

According to our estimations, top responsible countries should contribute 0.2%–0.5% of their GDP to a global financial fund for climate migrants. This work supports the principle of climate justice regarding worldwide current challenges.

You can find the full-text here:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111124

The GEAR members Marina Sánchez-Serrano, Jorge Zafrilla, Mateo Ortiz and Guadalupe Arce have recently published in Regional Science Policy & Practice the paper entitled “Carbon taxation and related vulnerability of Spanish urban and rural households in a regional level”.

Consumer choices  are critical to reducing CO2 emissions from human activities. Climate policies aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of consumers often have a negative impact on low-income families and rural households with limited access to low-carbon consumption choices.

In this paper, we estimate households’ carbon footprint in Castilla-La Mancha (Spain) by urban-rural location and expenditure attributes and simulate the impacts of a carbon tax on the disposable income of different types of households.

A multiregional input-output model is proposed to assign global carbon footprints to products. This model will help us identify the main driving goods in each type of household’s carbon footprint and evaluate the household’s vulnerability after carbon taxation.

Our findings suggest that high-spending households would face the taxation strongest effects on car fuels and transport services, as they would have an impact of 2% of their total expenditure by the taxation on these products, while this effect in lower-income households would be 0,75%. A tax on basic housing services (electricity and heating) would have a regressive impact, undermining the consumption level of vulnerable households. They would be affected by 2,5%, while higher income households would spend between 1 and 1,5% of their total expenditure on paying the carbon tax on this product.

This heterogeneity across households leads us to recommend taxes and compensation mechanisms charged on adequate products to reduce households’ carbon footprints while avoiding the regressivity of climate policies and reducing urban-rural inequalities.

You can find the full text here:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1757780224003342