New publication from the Twin Seeds Project! The article “Recent global value chain reconfiguration: drivers and consequences on EU carbon footprint » by the GEAR members Ángela García-Alaminos, María Ángeles Cadarso, María Ángeles Tobarra, and Luis A. López has been released online in Ecological Economics. This work is a result of the European Commission under Horizon Europe project TWIN SEEDS (Towards a World Integrated and Socio-economically Balanced European Economic Development Scenario), grant number 101056793 (https://doi. org/10.3030/101056793).

This paper aims to measure the magnitude of those relocation patterns and their impact on carbon emissions, focusing on the European Union (EU). For this purpose, we use an environmentally extended multiregional input-output model to calculate global emissions’ trends from 1995 to 2018 and to identify different trade-relocation patterns, quantifying their carbon content. We also perform a structural decomposition analysis to divide the changes in the EU’s carbon footprint according to different drivers. Our results show a change in global emissions evolution from 2008 onwards, with emerging trends of global value chains reconfiguration showing a more vital role of environmental concerns. We also find that reshoring and reoffshoring are less emission-intensive than offshoring. In the EU’s context, its footprint has been reduced since the 2008 crisis, mainly due to lower emissions intensities and technical changes towards cleaner ways of production. In contrast, the geographical shift of suppliers contributes to the growth of emissions in the whole period.

You can find the full text here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108828.

How does climate‑related migration reshape Bangladesh’s economic structure and employment? Marina Sánchez‑Serrano, Jorge Zafrilla, Guadalupe Arce and Ángela García‑Alaminos examine this question in their new article published in iScience (2026).

The article, titled «Socioeconomic impacts of climate-related migration: The case of Bangladesh», examines how slow-onset climate events that drive population displacement reshape Bangladesh’s economic structure. Using an environmentally extended input–output model based on the Miyazawa approach, the authors differentiate between rural and urban households to capture changes in consumption patterns and their propagation throughout the economy.

The study finds that climate-induced migration can lead to substantial socioeconomic losses. Depending on the scenario analysed, national value-added could fall by up to 5.4 percent and employment by up to 5.5 percent. The most vulnerable sectors are agriculture and fishing, construction, trade, transport, and public administration, all of which are tightly interconnected with the rest of the production system. The strong forward and backward linkages of these sectors amplify the impacts of population loss across the entire economy.

The results also show that the decline in rural population significantly reduces domestic demand, deepening the contraction in several key sectors. Non-industrial activities such as education and public administration experience particularly sharp induced declines, not because of direct production shocks but because of their high dependence on household consumption. In contrast, a scenario of internal migration—from rural areas to urban manufacturing—slightly expands industrial activity. However, this reallocation of labour increases the pressure on already overcrowded and environmentally stressed urban centres, raising concerns about urban sustainability.

Overall, the findings emphasise that climate-induced migration is not merely a demographic phenomenon: it restructures economies. In Bangladesh, addressing these challenges requires stronger industrial diversification, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, and international financial support to mitigate the socioeconomic consequences. The study offers essential insights for researchers and policymakers working on climate economics, migration, and development. The full article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.115199

What would be the effects of implementing carbon taxation in Spain? Marina Sánchez-Serrano, Guadalupe Arce, Jorge Zafrilla, and Luis A. Lopez analyze this question in their new article published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology. Here’s a summary:

The article, titled “Unveiling households’ vulnerabilities across regions and generations in Spain: a carbon tax and compensation approach,” examines the carbon footprint of households based on factors such as the Autonomous Community of residence, followed by a simulation of carbon taxation.

The results reveal the regressive nature of carbon taxation: households residing in regions with lower average expenditure levels are the most affected by this measure. There are also notable differences across age groups: younger households are primarily affected by transport-related taxation, while older households are more impacted by taxation on housing and utilities.

To mitigate these inequalities, the authors propose compensation mechanisms based on social and economic factors, with economic criteria being essential for designing fiscal instruments.

If you want to learn more, you can read the article here:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s44498-026-00019-x

The GEAR members Ángela García-Alaminos, María Ángeles Tobarra, and María Ángeles Cadarso have recently published the paper “Drivers of the Carbon Footprint Impact Resulting from the Reconfiguration of Global Value Chains» in the most recent issue of the Spanish journal Cuadernos Económicos de ICE, entitled “International trade and global value chains in a new global context. The article is a result of the European Commission under Horizon Europe project TWIN SEEDS (Towards a World Integrated and Socio-economically Balanced European Economic Development Scenario), grant number 101056793 (https://doi. org/10.3030/101056793) and has also received funding from the University of Castilla-La Mancha and the EU Regional Development Fund trough the project SOS-ESOCAM (ref. 2022-GRIN-34177).

This study aims to assess whether the evolution of the global value chains (GVCs) in which the Spanish economy is embedded has contributed to emission reduction goals or not. To this end, we analyze the evolution of Spain’s carbon emissions from multiple perspectives between 1995 and 2018, and evaluate their determinants through a structural decomposition analysis using an extended multi-regional input-output model. We pay particular attention to the impact of GVC reconfiguration, which has shifted from greater fragmentation and offshoring of production to a slowdown in globalization and even reshoring of activities. Our results show that the geographical factor of these GVCs has contributed to increasing emissions throughout the entire period, while other factors (emission intensity, demand level and pattern) have helped reduce them since 2008.

You can find the full text here: https://doi.org/10.32796/cice.2025.109.7925

The GEAR members María Ángeles Tobarra, Luis A. López, Ángela García-Alaminos and María Ángeles Cadarso have recently published the paper entitled “Identifying critical EU carbon emissions risk through global value chains” in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. The article is a result of the European Commission under Horizon Europe project TWIN SEEDS (Towards a World Integrated and Socio-economically Balanced European Economic Development Scenario), grant number 101056793 (https://doi. org/10.3030/101056793).

This study examines the distribution of carbon emissions across global value chains (GVCs) and identifies the sectors within the EU that are most vulnerable to carbon-related risks. Using environmentally extended input-output analysis, the authors map both upstream and downstream carbon “hotspots” and introduce a novel Climate-Reshoring Index (CRI) to assess sectoral vulnerability to carbon dependency and trade disruptions.

Key findings reveal that the sectors emitting and consuming carbon-intensive goods are not the same. For example, Electricity & gas and Basic metals (especially from China and Russia) are major upstream emission sources, while Russian refined petroleum products dominate downstream imported emissions. Sectors like Chemicals and Metals show over 50% of their carbon footprint as imported. The most at-risk sectors, according to the CRI, include Computer, electronic and optical equipment, Pharmaceuticals, and Electrical equipment—all critical to the EU’s strategic autonomy. The study emphasizes the need for EU policies to account for sector-specific carbon exposure to enhance both climate goals and economic resilience

You can find the full text here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25000876?via%3Dihub