{"id":884,"date":"2023-12-27T12:58:05","date_gmt":"2023-12-27T11:58:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/?p=884"},"modified":"2023-12-27T12:58:05","modified_gmt":"2023-12-27T11:58:05","slug":"analisis-de-la-primera-vuelta-la-liga-hypermotion-2023-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/2023\/12\/27\/analisis-de-la-primera-vuelta-la-liga-hypermotion-2023-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"An\u00e1lisis de la primera vuelta La Liga Hypermotion 2023-2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Una vez concluida la primera vuelta de La Liga Hypermotion de la temporada 2023-2024 y con el par\u00f3n navide\u00f1o es un buen momento para analizar lo sucedido y ver qu\u00e9 puede suceder al concluir la temporada. Para analizar lo sucedido se van a calcular la eficiencia de los equipos en el campo y lo que se espera que suceda a fin de liga. Para calcular la eficiencia en el campo se compara los puntos logrados con los puntos que se esperaban seg\u00fan las cuotas de las casas de apuestas. De esta forma se obtiene tanto la diferencia entre los puntos conseguidos y los esperados como una nota entre 0 y 10, donde cero supone hacerlo peor que la peor expectativa, y 10 supone batir la mejor expectativa de puntos. Por otra parte, para calcular las probabilidades a fin de temporada se usan las cuotas de la primera vuelta, se simulan 1000 veces, y se les suma la puntuaci\u00f3n obtenida en la primera m\u00e1s un tercio de la diferencia entre puntos conseguidos y puntos esperados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Eficiencia en el campo<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para evaluar la eficiencia en el campo uso la metodolog\u00eda desarrollada en este <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/1527002515595266\">art\u00edculo<\/a> del Journal of Sports Economics. La metodolog\u00eda, en versi\u00f3n resumida, consiste en coger las cuotas de las apuestas deportivas, se pasan estas cuotas a probabilidades, con las probabilidades de victoria, empate y derrota se puede calcular la probabilidad de cada una de las posibles puntuaciones, que en la primera vuelta de la Liga2 van desde 0 hasta 63. Despu\u00e9s se suman las probabilidades de las puntuaciones superiores a la realmente obtenida y ese valor se resta de uno. Por ejemplo, un equipo que obtuviese 61 puntos, y que la probabilidad de haber obtenido 63 puntos era de 0,01 su eficiencia ser\u00eda 0,99.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La siguiente tabla muestra la eficiencia en el campo de la primera vuelta en la Liga 2 en la temporada 2023\/2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tabla 1. Eficiencia en el campo en la primera vuelta La Liga 2 2023-2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Equipo<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Puntos<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Puntos esperados<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Diferencia<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Eficiencia<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ferrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">37<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">27,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,97<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Legan\u00e9s<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">39<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">29,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,96<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sp Gij\u00f3n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">35<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">29,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,84<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Santander<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">33<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,83<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burgos<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">26,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,79<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mirand\u00e9s<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,78<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Valladolid<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">35<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">32,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,69<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eldense<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">26<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,66<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Levante<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">32<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,65<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oviedo<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">29,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,59<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Villarreal B<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">23,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,58<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tenerife<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">31<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,56<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Espanyol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">34<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">35,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-1,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,43<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zaragoza<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">29,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-1,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,41<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eibar<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">32<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">34,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-2,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,37<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Elche<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">32,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-2,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,35<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Huesca<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">22<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">25,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-3,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,28<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alcorc\u00f3n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">20<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-4,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,23<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Andorra<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">23<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-5,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,19<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Albacete<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">25<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">31,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-6,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amorebieta<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">22,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-7,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cartagena<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">24,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-9,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,05<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Los tres mejores equipos son Racing de Ferrol, Legan\u00e9s y Sporting de Gij\u00f3n. Muy destacable es la actuaci\u00f3n del l\u00edder Legan\u00e9s pero especialmente la del Racing de Ferrol que su expectativa era estar en la parte media baja de la clasificaci\u00f3n y ha obtenido m\u00e1s de 10 puntos que los esperados. Por el lado contrario, los peores equipos han sido Albacete, Amorebieta y Cartagena. Destacar al Albacete que su expectativa era ser el tercer equipo con m\u00e1s puntos y sin embargo est\u00e1 situado en la parte media-baja de la clasificaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Las probabilidades a fin de liga<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Para simular lo que queda de liga he realizado lo siguiente. He cogido la puntuaci\u00f3n de la primera vuelta, y le he a\u00f1adido un tercio de la diferencia entre puntos obtenidos y puntos esperados. Por ejemplo, en el caso del Racing de Ferrol y del Legan\u00e9s son tres puntos adicionales. El motivo es que para simular la competici\u00f3n cojo las probabilidades de los partidos de la primera vuelta y es razonable pensar que parte de ese rendimiento por encima o por debajo de lo esperado se mantenga en el tiempo. Es razonable pensar que el Legan\u00e9s no es el mejor equipo de la liga para la segunda vuelta pero tampoco lo es pensar que es un mero equipo de media tabla. Con esos dos supuestos: puntos a\u00f1adidos y uso de probabilidades de la primera vuelta se simula la competici\u00f3n 1.000 veces obteniendo as\u00ed la probabilidad de cada equipo de terminar en cada una de las 22 posibles posiciones. Decir, que en caso de empate a puntos en la simulaci\u00f3n se decide por sorteo el orden de los equipos<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La siguiente tabla muestra la probabilidad de cada equipo de terminar en cada una de las posibles posiciones al finalizar la Liga 2 temporada 2023-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tabla 2. Probabilidad de terminar en cada posici\u00f3n a la conclusi\u00f3n de La Liga 2 2023-2024 tras primera vuelta (1.000 simulaciones)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Equipo<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 1<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 2<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 3<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 4<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 6<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 7<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 8<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 9<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 10<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 11<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 12<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 13<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 14<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 15<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 16<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 17<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 18<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 19<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 20<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 21<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>P 22<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Legan\u00e9s<\/td><td>52,6<\/td><td>23,5<\/td><td>11,0<\/td><td>6,2<\/td><td>2,9<\/td><td>1,5<\/td><td>1,0<\/td><td>1,0<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Valladolid<\/td><td>21,5<\/td><td>24,7<\/td><td>19,2<\/td><td>10,4<\/td><td>8,5<\/td><td>5,3<\/td><td>4,4<\/td><td>2,6<\/td><td>2,1<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Espanyol<\/td><td>7,5<\/td><td>13,8<\/td><td>13,2<\/td><td>15,6<\/td><td>11,6<\/td><td>12,1<\/td><td>8,1<\/td><td>6,0<\/td><td>4,5<\/td><td>3,0<\/td><td>2,0<\/td><td>1,4<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sp Gij\u00f3n<\/td><td>7,2<\/td><td>16,2<\/td><td>16,9<\/td><td>13,4<\/td><td>12,8<\/td><td>9,4<\/td><td>8,9<\/td><td>5,2<\/td><td>4,6<\/td><td>2,9<\/td><td>1,1<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ferrol<\/td><td>4,8<\/td><td>7,2<\/td><td>11,3<\/td><td>12,6<\/td><td>12,1<\/td><td>13,7<\/td><td>9,5<\/td><td>10,4<\/td><td>6,5<\/td><td>5,0<\/td><td>2,6<\/td><td>2,8<\/td><td>1,2<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Santander<\/td><td>1,8<\/td><td>5,2<\/td><td>7,6<\/td><td>10,1<\/td><td>10,9<\/td><td>10,9<\/td><td>12,5<\/td><td>10,4<\/td><td>9,4<\/td><td>6,4<\/td><td>6,2<\/td><td>3,4<\/td><td>3,4<\/td><td>1,1<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eibar<\/td><td>1,8<\/td><td>3,6<\/td><td>7,5<\/td><td>11,2<\/td><td>12,8<\/td><td>11,1<\/td><td>12,8<\/td><td>10,8<\/td><td>8,7<\/td><td>7,0<\/td><td>4,6<\/td><td>3,3<\/td><td>2,5<\/td><td>1,3<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Levante<\/td><td>1,7<\/td><td>3,4<\/td><td>6,3<\/td><td>8,1<\/td><td>9,1<\/td><td>11,0<\/td><td>10,2<\/td><td>11,5<\/td><td>12,5<\/td><td>8,7<\/td><td>8,1<\/td><td>4,3<\/td><td>2,0<\/td><td>1,2<\/td><td>1,0<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Elche<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>1,1<\/td><td>1,9<\/td><td>3,9<\/td><td>6,0<\/td><td>6,7<\/td><td>10,2<\/td><td>9,6<\/td><td>11,0<\/td><td>13,0<\/td><td>11,0<\/td><td>9,3<\/td><td>7,1<\/td><td>5,4<\/td><td>1,2<\/td><td>1,5<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tenerife<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>0,9<\/td><td>3,8<\/td><td>5,6<\/td><td>7,9<\/td><td>7,6<\/td><td>8,7<\/td><td>14,1<\/td><td>10,8<\/td><td>10,9<\/td><td>9,1<\/td><td>8,6<\/td><td>4,6<\/td><td>4,3<\/td><td>1,7<\/td><td>0,6<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burgos<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>1,3<\/td><td>2,3<\/td><td>3,3<\/td><td>3,9<\/td><td>5,8<\/td><td>8,0<\/td><td>11,2<\/td><td>13,4<\/td><td>15,2<\/td><td>11,8<\/td><td>9,1<\/td><td>8,7<\/td><td>3,4<\/td><td>1,8<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oviedo<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>1,1<\/td><td>1,3<\/td><td>1,7<\/td><td>4,4<\/td><td>4,5<\/td><td>5,1<\/td><td>9,8<\/td><td>13,0<\/td><td>13,9<\/td><td>13,3<\/td><td>11,4<\/td><td>10,8<\/td><td>4,8<\/td><td>3,1<\/td><td>1,2<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mirand\u00e9s<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>1,3<\/td><td>1,5<\/td><td>3,4<\/td><td>4,0<\/td><td>6,3<\/td><td>8,5<\/td><td>11,7<\/td><td>16,4<\/td><td>16,8<\/td><td>15,2<\/td><td>9,3<\/td><td>3,6<\/td><td>1,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zaragoza<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,9<\/td><td>1,9<\/td><td>2,7<\/td><td>4,7<\/td><td>5,2<\/td><td>7,7<\/td><td>11,5<\/td><td>12,9<\/td><td>16,8<\/td><td>11,6<\/td><td>10,3<\/td><td>8,2<\/td><td>3,4<\/td><td>1,5<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amorebieta<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,9<\/td><td>5,4<\/td><td>18,0<\/td><td>31,2<\/td><td>44,3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cartagena<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>0,8<\/td><td>5,3<\/td><td>18,5<\/td><td>33,0<\/td><td>41,8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Villarreal B<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>1,7<\/td><td>3,0<\/td><td>5,7<\/td><td>11,9<\/td><td>18,9<\/td><td>30,2<\/td><td>20,5<\/td><td>4,6<\/td><td>1,7<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Albacete<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>0,5<\/td><td>2,1<\/td><td>4,0<\/td><td>5,7<\/td><td>7,7<\/td><td>11,5<\/td><td>16,4<\/td><td>18,2<\/td><td>16,0<\/td><td>10,0<\/td><td>5,2<\/td><td>1,2<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alcorc\u00f3n<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,3<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>2,1<\/td><td>5,3<\/td><td>16,6<\/td><td>35,6<\/td><td>27,0<\/td><td>12,7<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eldense<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>0,6<\/td><td>0,6<\/td><td>0,8<\/td><td>2,2<\/td><td>3,2<\/td><td>5,8<\/td><td>8,9<\/td><td>12,2<\/td><td>17,3<\/td><td>18,8<\/td><td>15,6<\/td><td>8,9<\/td><td>3,8<\/td><td>0,8<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Huesca<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,1<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>0,6<\/td><td>1,5<\/td><td>4,4<\/td><td>10,8<\/td><td>18,9<\/td><td>36,1<\/td><td>19,4<\/td><td>6,2<\/td><td>1,1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Andorra<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><td>0,2<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>0,4<\/td><td>1,4<\/td><td>3,6<\/td><td>5,8<\/td><td>11,1<\/td><td>15,4<\/td><td>25,0<\/td><td>23,7<\/td><td>9,4<\/td><td>2,9<\/td><td>0,7<\/td><td>0,0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Puede verse como el Legan\u00e9s y el Valladolid tienen muy bien encaminado lograr el ascenso directo, pero no pueden dormirse mucho Sporting de Gij\u00f3n, Espanyol y Racing de Ferrol est\u00e1n al acecho. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Por comparar estas probabilidades con algo he visto que bwin ofrece las cuotas a ganador de la Liga 2. Como puede verse aunque tienen cierto parecido difieren bastante pues bwin le otorga una probabilidad de ganar La Liga 2 al Legan\u00e9s del 26%, mientras que en el modelo que he empleado es de m\u00e1s del 50%. He hecho alguna prueba cambiando la proporci\u00f3n de la diferencia entre puntos conseguidos y puntos esperados y l\u00f3gicamente cuanto mayor fuese esa cifra mayor era la cifra de la probabilidad de ser el campe\u00f3n del Legan\u00e9s. Si mi modelo es bueno, aqu\u00ed habr\u00eda lo que se conoce como una apuesta con valor pues la probabilidad de que gane el Legan\u00e9s seg\u00fan mi modelo es de m\u00e1s del 50% y lo pagan como si fuese del 31%, teniendo en cuenta el overround.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tabla 3. Cuota y probabilidad de ganar LaLiga2 2023-2024 seg\u00fan bwin tras primera vuelta<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Equipo<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Cuota ganador liga 2 bwin<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Probabilidad<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Legan\u00e9s<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,25<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">25,67<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Espanyol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10,43<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Valladolid<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">12,84<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sp Gij\u00f3n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10,43<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eibar<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6,42<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ferrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10,43<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Levante<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5,56<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Elche<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">26<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,21<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Santander<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">17<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4,91<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tenerife<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">21<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,97<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burgos<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">41<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,03<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Albacete<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">151<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,55<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zaragoza<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">67<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1,25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oviedo<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">51<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1,64<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mirand\u00e9s<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eldense<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">251<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,33<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cartagena<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amorebieta<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Villarreal B<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">501<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,17<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alcorc\u00f3n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Huesca<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Andorra<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">501<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,17<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Para concluir he agrupado en cuatro tipos de puestos: ascenso directo, fase de ascenso, posiciones 7-18 y descenso. Asumiendo que la probabilidad de los cuatro clasificados para la fase es la misma se puede calcular la probabilidad de ascenso. Puede verse como el Legan\u00e9s lo tiene muy bien encamidado, pero Espanyol, Valladolid, Sporting de Gij\u00f3n y Eibar se sit\u00faan por encima del 25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tabla 4. Probabilidad tras 1.000 simulaciones de resultado en La Liga 2 2023-2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Equipo<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\" colspan=\"5\"><strong>Probabilidades<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Ascenso directo<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Fase de ascenso<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Puestos 7-18<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Descenso<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Ascenso<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Legan\u00e9s<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">58,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">34,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">66,8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Espanyol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">42,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">43,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">53,5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Valladolid<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">37,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">45,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">16,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">49,4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sp Gij\u00f3n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">17,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">46,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">35,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">29,4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eibar<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">16,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">49,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">34,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28,8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ferrol<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">63,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">14,1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Levante<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">31,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">63,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Elche<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">31,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">63,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13,1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Santander<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">28,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">66,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">11,9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tenerife<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">30,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">65,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">11,6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burgos<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">92,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1,9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Albacete<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">96,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zaragoza<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">91,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oviedo<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">88,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mirand\u00e9s<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">96,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eldense<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">88,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cartagena<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5,2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">94,8<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amorebieta<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">97,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Villarreal B<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">64,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">36,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alcorcomn<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13,6<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">86,4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Huesca<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">38,7<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">61,3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Andorra<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">91,9<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8,0<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">0,0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Una vez concluida la primera vuelta de La Liga Hypermotion de la temporada 2023-2024 y con el par\u00f3n navide\u00f1o es un buen momento para analizar lo sucedido y ver qu\u00e9 puede suceder al concluir la temporada. Para analizar lo sucedido se van a calcular la eficiencia de los equipos en el campo y lo que &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/2023\/12\/27\/analisis-de-la-primera-vuelta-la-liga-hypermotion-2023-2024\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuar leyendo<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \u00abAn\u00e1lisis de la primera vuelta La Liga Hypermotion 2023-2024\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":69,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categoria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/69"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=884"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":887,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884\/revisions\/887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.uclm.es\/juliocorral\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}